Sunday, December 20, 2009, 1:20PM ET - U.S. Markets Closed.
From The Business Insider, March 9, 2009:

Wall Street is now talking openly about the possibility of the DOW dropping to 5,000 and the S&P 500 to 400-500. This is actually good news. The more negative everyone gets, the more likely we're getting close to a bottom.
(Unfortunately, few strategists are actually predicting the market will hit this level yet. But at least they're talking about it.)
The bad news is that 400-500 on the S&P would still be higher than previous major bear market lows on a price-earnings basis (See Robert Shiller's chart above and "How Low Can The Market Go?"). Fortunately, it's not that much higher.
In the WSJ's story on DOW 5000 today, here's one fact that jumped out:
Between April 8, 1932, and July 8, 1932, stocks fell 34% -- a little more than what it would take to get the S&P to 500.
A level of 500 would take declines for the S&P to 68% since its October 2007 high, compared with the peak-to-trough depression-era slump of almost 90%.
The most persuasive argument we've heard as to why stocks won't crash toward the Depression lows is Paul Kasriel's observation that the government has not yet blown it to the extent that the Hoover administration did. Richard Sylla of NYU echoes that view:
This time, the barrage of government policy prescriptions make a decline of Depression-era magnitude very unlikely, says Richard Sylla, a financial historian and economics professor at New York University's Stern School of Business.
"People say [government policy] hasn't worked yet, and there have been slips in the execution, but I would say things could be much worse. It will put a bit of a floor under the declines," Mr. Sylla says. That said, he thinks stocks aren't at their lows yet, and guesses the Dow will bottom near 6000.
Only 6000? No problem.
See also from The Business Insider: How Low Can The Market Go?
Forget about the stock market...the real action has to be in the banking, real estate and job sectors before you will see any rise or bottoming in the stock market. When jobs stop declining and auto sales start up again, we might be getting to bottom.
No one has given any actual evidence of the current time (except the earnings argument which no one really knows what they are going to be) where the bottom will be. "...that the government has not yet blown it to the extent that the Hoover administration did." That would be valid if this was the 1930s... but it is not. Lousie Yamada is almost the only one who gives any rational insight based on info from our period. I have no idea what is going to happen, but you can't say it isn't going to be as bad because we are doing different things than Hoover. It happened in a completely different context.
this economy will not turn until investors are assured we are not going socialist. why work for the govt to give away.
MORONIC TERRORISM WHAT A PROUD AMERICAN THIS GUY IS UNBELIEVABLE
The US needs to cut government spending, as in reductions of 25% or all federal agencies, the congress, the executive branch, the judicial branch. Why should private investors take the 50% loss? Why should private industires take 50%-100% losses? Get the picture?
The prognosticators all predict based on history, and history has had very little credibility in recent years. Everything that happens seems to break from historic patterns. Information spreads very quickly today. News travels in minutes and not in days. I think the Dow at 5000 is realistic, even if it's only for a brief time.
recent poll taken ... 80% said purchasing any big ticket item is not in the plans for 2009. Inventories are still a little high and need to reach equilibrium before anything... hopefully there are enough people left in the job market to have any effect ... 50 and over is not a good demographic ... this recession/depression has pretty much taken 10 years of savings and flushed it down the toilet... the next 5-7 years is going to be difficult with inflation and small paychecks.... I wonder how my Senators are doing??? I bet their retirement is still golden... and now they are debating whether to keep their annual pay raise in the Omnibus Bill??? Yeah, keep voting for these people and we get more of the same....
let the market drop even more....great time to buy! This is truely one of the best times to invest, buy low sell high!_______________________________ to 420-d- we need less people in the world.
Where is the difference between the Hoover administration screw-up’s and the Obama administration screw-up’s? They both interfered with normal market functions and try to correct Federal Reserve mismanagement of the money supply and making things worse.
....YOU CAN CHECK OUT ANY TIME YOU LIKE... YOU JUST CAN NEVER LEAVE.....
The US is being destroyed from the inside by our government. There is no way you can have a longer lasting destruction than internal destruction and the government is doing a fine job with their treason. No depression yet until late 2019, I believe. They'll inflate us out of this recession, no matter what it costs, and this will sow the seeds for that depression. What causes the 2019 depression? Destruction of the international fiat monetary system and all countries will have to deal with this due to constant budget deficits worldwide. That one you can't print money out of as nobody will want your toilet paper at that time, because that will be what it's worth. At that time, expect governments around the world to take private assets and make them government owned.
The stock market is a scam, the goverment leaders from both sides are cheats and would sell their mother for a nickel, we all know that. We have no integrity in the banking system, out sourced much of our productive work force, illegal imigration persists from both parties, the Feds are trying to take your guns away from you......and you wonder why the ecomoney is in the dump, get real. The working people know whats happening and until our goverment becomes "for the people by the people" its only going to get worse. You think not....go ahead and put all your pesos in the market, put them into your home, charge up your credit cards, go buy that 65k GMC.....go ahead, thought not!
The stock market is a scam, the goverment leaders from both sides are cheats and would sell their mother for a nickel, we all know that. We have no integrity in the banking system, out sourced much of our productive work force, illegal imigration persists from both parties, the Feds are trying to take your guns away from you......and you wonder why the ecomoney is in the dump, get real. The working people know whats happening and until our goverment becomes "for the people by the people" its only going to get worse. You think not....go ahead and put all your pesos in the market, put them into your home, charge up your credit cards, go buy that 65k GMC.....go ahead, thought not!
The recovery plan is working. The government as investor of last resort has been taking equity positions in banks deemed worthy of support or too big to fail and the banks are starting to pay back the Federal funds. The tax reduction portion is now starting for the lower income folks who both need it and are most likely to spend it. Money is going to the States to repair/replace infrastructure...providing long term value and at least short term jobs. What the Administration needs is a modern equivalent of the "Fireside Chat" to let people know what is really happening..and counter to some extent all of the nay sayers, many of whom are obviously smarting over the results of the election..
socialism protects everyone. if you have 12 children or 2 children socialism will cover your expenses and provide shelter and food for you. where is the incentive to lower populations short of a pandemic or a world war?
Maybe all these economics professors should get together and resign.
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- Monday March 09, 2009 09:15AM EDT
I love these articles and comments. It is always good to know when you can't complain about the weather, there is always the economy.